Tavago
Race Images Palmerston North
Cambridge trainer Trent Busuttin expects New Zealand Derby favouritism is awaiting the winner of Saturday's Gr.2 Darci Brahma Waikato Guineas (2000m) at Te Rapa - and he believes that will be his emerging star Tavago.
Busuttin and his partner Natalie Young will produce Tavistock gelding Tavago for just his fifth start in the Waikato Guineas but says the Gr.3 Wellington Stakes winner is a worthy favourite for the key lead up to the Gr.1 New Zealand Derby (2400m) at Ellerslie on March 5.
Four of the last five winners of the New Zealand Derby have won the Waikato Guineas on the way through - Jimmy Choux in 2011, Silent Achiever in 2012, Puccini in 2014 and Mongolian Khan last year.
TAB bookmakers installed Tavago as a $3.60 favourite for the Guineas ahead of Get That Jive at $4.80, Rangipo at $8.50 and Zacada at $9.50.
Tavago has had one run since his Wellington Stakes win, producing a sizzling 33.68-second last 600m to only narrowly go down at the hands of Waikato Guineas rivals Raghu and It's Ben Again in the Listed Karaka 3yo Mile at Ellerslie last month.
"The Waikato Guineas has become the defining race going into the Derby and whatever wins will be Derby favourite come Monday morning. If he gets the right run on Saturday, you'd think that would be him," Busuttin said.
"He's come through that Karaka Million night run exceptionally. His work on Tuesday morning was very good and I couldn't be any happier with him. We're looking forward to stepping him up over 2000m.
"The draw [barrier 10] makes it a little awkward because we had planned on pushing forward and getting a nice suck-along just behind the leaders but we'll have to reassess our plans from there. I see a lot of the better chances have drawn wide though."
Busuttin, who produced Sangster to win the 2011 Victoria Derby at Flemington, believes Tavago has all the attributes that a Derby winner needs.
"On his style of racing and being by Tavistock, he should have no problems with the step up in distance. There's not a lot of staying blood on his dam's side but on what we've seen from him, he'll relish the extra trip," Busuttin said.
"He should have won the race at Ellerslie the other night, as simple as that. If he hadn't had to baulk and be pushed sideways when the inside horse moved out, he would have won the race. His sectionals were phenomenal and suggested his was the best run of the whole night."
Busuttin and Young have four three-year-olds still in Derby contention - with Predator pressing his claims at New Plymouth on Friday and Curragh needing a win at Tauherenikau next Monday to convince his connections he is worth paying the next declaration fee next Tuesday. Last-start Trentham winner Animator will continue to take a lower-grade race lead up path.
The Cambridge couple, who will shift their stable to Cranbourne this winter, ensured their stocks of Classic contenders were replenished at Karaka last week, signing for four yearlings by Tavistock and three by Savabeel.
Their Savabeel five-year-old Mabeel, fourth in the Gr.1 Thorndon Mile at Trentham last month, will have his next race in Saturday week's Gr.1 NRM Sprint (1400m) at Te Rapa. - NZ Racing Desk
Busuttin and his partner Natalie Young will produce Tavistock gelding Tavago for just his fifth start in the Waikato Guineas but says the Gr.3 Wellington Stakes winner is a worthy favourite for the key lead up to the Gr.1 New Zealand Derby (2400m) at Ellerslie on March 5.
Four of the last five winners of the New Zealand Derby have won the Waikato Guineas on the way through - Jimmy Choux in 2011, Silent Achiever in 2012, Puccini in 2014 and Mongolian Khan last year.
TAB bookmakers installed Tavago as a $3.60 favourite for the Guineas ahead of Get That Jive at $4.80, Rangipo at $8.50 and Zacada at $9.50.
Tavago has had one run since his Wellington Stakes win, producing a sizzling 33.68-second last 600m to only narrowly go down at the hands of Waikato Guineas rivals Raghu and It's Ben Again in the Listed Karaka 3yo Mile at Ellerslie last month.
"The Waikato Guineas has become the defining race going into the Derby and whatever wins will be Derby favourite come Monday morning. If he gets the right run on Saturday, you'd think that would be him," Busuttin said.
"He's come through that Karaka Million night run exceptionally. His work on Tuesday morning was very good and I couldn't be any happier with him. We're looking forward to stepping him up over 2000m.
"The draw [barrier 10] makes it a little awkward because we had planned on pushing forward and getting a nice suck-along just behind the leaders but we'll have to reassess our plans from there. I see a lot of the better chances have drawn wide though."
Busuttin, who produced Sangster to win the 2011 Victoria Derby at Flemington, believes Tavago has all the attributes that a Derby winner needs.
"On his style of racing and being by Tavistock, he should have no problems with the step up in distance. There's not a lot of staying blood on his dam's side but on what we've seen from him, he'll relish the extra trip," Busuttin said.
"He should have won the race at Ellerslie the other night, as simple as that. If he hadn't had to baulk and be pushed sideways when the inside horse moved out, he would have won the race. His sectionals were phenomenal and suggested his was the best run of the whole night."
Busuttin and Young have four three-year-olds still in Derby contention - with Predator pressing his claims at New Plymouth on Friday and Curragh needing a win at Tauherenikau next Monday to convince his connections he is worth paying the next declaration fee next Tuesday. Last-start Trentham winner Animator will continue to take a lower-grade race lead up path.
The Cambridge couple, who will shift their stable to Cranbourne this winter, ensured their stocks of Classic contenders were replenished at Karaka last week, signing for four yearlings by Tavistock and three by Savabeel.
Their Savabeel five-year-old Mabeel, fourth in the Gr.1 Thorndon Mile at Trentham last month, will have his next race in Saturday week's Gr.1 NRM Sprint (1400m) at Te Rapa. - NZ Racing Desk